Overall U.S advertising spending is forecast to rise 7% in 2022, according to Cowen International’s latest annual ad buyers’ survey — the highest year-over-year growth projection in the survey’s 10-year history.
For this year’s advertising outlook report, Cowen surveyed 54 senior U.S. ad buyers representing more than $31 billion in U.S. ad spending about their spending intentions.
Cowen projects that video and social channels will drive 18% year-over-year growth for the global digital ad market, to $519 billion, according to a results summary by the investment bank’s Internet analyst, John Blackledge.
The U.S. digital ad market is forecast to grow 17% year-over-year, to $221 billion.
Over the next two years, the buyers expect digital’s U.S. share to rise about 8%, with digital video and social video the fastest-growing channels within digital over that period.
The biggest share beneficiaries within digital advertising over the next two years are expected to be YouTube, Amazon and Tiktok, while expected share losers include Google search, core Facebook and Instagram.
Fully 60% of respondents expect the new iOS 14.5 changes that require developers to get users’ permission to access the Identifier for Advertisers (IDFA) to collect targeting data to impact measurement and targeting for six months or more, and 20% expect the impacts to be permanent.
Most of the 40% expecting the changes to be more transitory were in the tech and telco, healthcare and food and beverage industries.
Given the iOS 14.5 changes, 30% of respondents expect slower performance marketing in 2022, while 13% expect growth to be similar to 2021 levels.
Although just 3% expect performance marketing budgets to decline in 2022 as a result of the iOS changes, 33% expect to shift some performance marketing budgets to other digital platforms, such as Google search, YouTube, TikTok and Amazon.
Platforms not expected to see gains from this shift include Instagram, Snap, PINS and the app stores.
Among advertisers planning to launch a new branding campaign for the 13-to-34 age demographic, the leading platforms planned for use are YouTube, TikTok and Instagram.
Among those planning branding campaigns for the 35-plus demo, TV, core Facebook and YouTube are the leading platforms.