Local TV Projected For A 9% Advertising Increase, National TV Could Take Hit Later This Year

Local TV stations could see a 9% increase in advertising revenues this year to $23.4 billion, but national TV networks -- broadcast and cable -- will drift lower, according to the latest MoffettNathanson Research, which projects that the major four U.S. broadcast networks will sink 2% (to $14.7 billion) with national cable networks 0.5% lower to $28.8 billion.

Although total TV over-delivered in the first quarter in advertising revenue -- up 8.0% in national TV (driven by the Olympics and political ads) -- the research firm expects some difficult periods later this year.

“Looking ahead, we forecast a mixed few quarters for linear TV as the tailwinds of sports gambling and political rub horns against macro and continued supply chain-related headwinds,” says the authors of the research.

Projections for local TV stations include a continued spike in political advertising, which Kantar has estimated to be a record of around $5.5 billion for all TV -- up from $4.5 billion in 2018, the previous midterm election season.

MoffettNathanson also estimates local cable (also to see benefits from higher political advertising) to be 9% for the year to $5.2 billion for the year.

U.S. syndication advertising revenue is expected to sink 4% to $2.8 billion.

The rising star among all TV platforms continues to be premium streaming/advertising video-on-demand (AVOD) platforms, projected to grow 44% to $11.1 billion. In total, the research company expects 6.5% higher advertising revenue for “total television” to $86.1 billion.

Estimated total TV advertising for 2022 is expected to comprise 27% of the total U.S. ad market.

Online/digital will continue to be the dominant player with a 61% share. “Other” media to comprise a 75 share; print media at a 4% number.

 “We expect TV (including AVOD) to fall from a 27% share of the market in 2022 to a 23% share in 2025," MoffettNathanson says.

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