The good news is that U.S. ad executives project their second-half ad spending will be up an average of 7% vs. what they originally planned, according to a survey released this morning by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB).
The bad news is that the same sample of ad execs reported their full-year ad spending will be down 31% from what was projected in a similar survey conducted by the bureau in the fall of 2021.
The findings, which were derived from a survey of 250 advertiser, agency and "other" executives conducted by the IAB July 7-20, are part of a "flash bulletin" entitled "U.S. Ad Investment Projections within the Current Macroeconomic Climate" that seeks to calm ad community -- and media-seller -- nerves amid increasingly weakening macroeconomic signals.
"Contrary to the prevailing market sentiment, second half 2022 ad spending is projected to be up 7% vs. original plan, as per brands and agencies," the report concludes, adding: "Growth is not uniform across categories -- second half 2022 ad spending is being driven by travel [+27%] and tech [+15%], while health & wellness [-5%] and auto [-2%] are down vs. planned."
The survey found that among those decreasing their second-half ad spending vs. what was originally planned, a "slowing economy" was the No. 1 factor (cited by 66% of those respondents), followed by "supply chain bottlenecks" (45%), "consumer inflation" (38%), "gas and/or energy price inflation" (23%), "media inflation" (22%), "war in Ukraine" (14%) and "other" (21%).
As encouraging as the second-half outlook might seem, its noteworthy that respondents currently project their U.S. ad spending to rise 9% this year, which is four percentage points lower than the 14% of respondents to the IAB's fall 2021 survey projected.
Looking ahead to 2023, 71% of respondents believe that a slowing economy will lead to a decrease in ad spending within the next year.
That said, respondents also said they expect 2023 ad spending to be an average of 10% above 2022.