• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, September 1, 2022

The national TV ad market continues to face challenges, even as big TV network media companies over the summer have sent out ebullient press releases. The challenge comes from underwhelming, declining scatter-market deals, where marketers buy national TV inventory on a month-to-month or quarter-by-quarter basis.

For many this view offers a better near-term pulse of where the market is going.

In July, SMI said upfront revenue was up 12% in the month versus two years ago (2020) with scatter revenues continuing to weaken -- down 26%, without the Olympics/NBA programming comparisons to a year ago. All in all, scatter is actually down 51% versus a year ago.

A broader view -- for the second-quarter period -- shows scatter revenue down 14% in the period, with upfront revenue down slightly, 0.2%.

Jason Kanefsky, managing partner, marketplace intelligence of Havas Media, says the key measure will be where upfront ad deals -- announced last month -- actually land.

Upfront TV activities over the summer are prompting continuing questions about the possibility of a recessionary economy. In other words, the TV market might be dinged a bit, if not headed for a bit of a crunch.

A clearer picture will emerge after Labor Day, seeing what upfront TV “commitments” -- also known as “holds” -- go to “order.”

This is the last opportunity that TV upfront marketers have to make a decision when it comes to TV advertising running in the fourth quarter and beyond.

If marketers pull back, Kanefsky says one good move for the U.S. market could be if global consumer products companies begin to shift media dollars -- including TV budgets from Europe where the economies could be rougher shape -- to the U.S.

For TV marketers as well as network executives, anxiety followed recent Q2 earnings calls with analysts from social media companies. Meta Platforms, Snap and Twitter offered general guidance that the next six months might offer dismal ad revenue results.

TV network media companies, in contrast, have been muted during their recent earnings phone calls in their guidance -- pinning a lot of hope on those early summer upfront TV “commitment” news.

The contrast is strong. Kanefsky, with regard to those TV networks: “No one said the third quarter was going to be a ridiculously bad quarter.”

However, SMI’s weak results for the second quarter and July suggest an uncertain market -- at best. Kanefsky again: “The guidance makes sense to what SMI is reporting outside of the Olympics and NBA.”

Soon the national TV rubber will meet the hard media road.