• by Joe Mandese , December 3, 2023

IPG Mediabrands Magna unit this evening released the latest in a series of quarterly updates on the U.S. ad spending outlook, increasing its 2023 estimate up two-tenths of a point, and its 2024 projection up four-tenths of a point.

Magna's 2023 estimate still is down dramatically from its first estimate published in June 2022, but has been climbing steady since it bottomed out at +2.5% in June 2023.

Magna's 2024 estimate has climbed steadily since benchmarking it at +7.3% in June 2023.

These growth estimates (above) are for total U.S. ad spending including cyclical events such as political advertising and Olympic-related advertising, but Magna's ex-cyclical estimates follow a similar pattern of quarterly upgrades and downgrades.

Excluding the impact of cyclical events, Magna currently projects U.s. ad spending will rise 5.4% this year and 5.9% in 2024.

Magna this evening was the first of the Big 4 holding company forecasting units to release its updated figures, but WPP's GroupM, Publicis Media's Zenith and Dentsu are expected to do so over the next several days.

Magna's release comes days after former long-time agency forecaster Brian Wieser -- who had been chief forecaster at Magna and GroupM, respectively -- released his own revisions calling for a nearly percentage point gain in his outlooks for the U.S. ad economy this year and next.

Like Wieser, Magna Executive Vice President-Global Market Research Vincent Létang attributed his upgrades to better-than-expected growth during the second half of 2023 leading into his revisions.

"Advertising spending re-accelerated in the second half of 2023 after four slow quarters from mid-22 to mid-23," he said in a statement, adding, "The recovery is driven by easier year-over-year comps and stabilizing economic conditions (inflation slowdown)."

He said most of the ad marketplace improvement has benefited "Pure-play digital advertising" media, which experienced "double-digit growth. "Traditional media" outlets, by comparison, have seen a 4% decrease in ad spending this year.