National Linear TV Revenue Forecast: Down 2.6% In 2024, Steeper Decline Next Year
- by Wayne Friedman , March 19, 2024
Even with expected higher TV revenues from the Paris Olympics and the Presidential political advertising season, 2024 national linear TV advertising is projected to decline 2.6% to $27.6 billion, according to MoffettNathanson Research.
Overall national TV was previously estimated to be virtually flat -- with a decline of just 0.2% -- and without the Olympics, down 7.2% to $26.3 billion.
“It is now clear that outside of sports advertising there should no longer be expectations of a recovery for linear TV advertising,” writes Michael Nathanson, senior research analyst and cofounder at MoffettNathanson Research.
Broadcast will be better off than cable linear TV networks -- thanks to return of original scripted entertainment after the mid-year writers'/actors' strikes of 2023.
Overall broadcast will rise 3.3% to $13.1 billion, while cable will slide 7.4% to $14.5 billion.
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Things are not projected to get much better in 2025 -- especially without the Olympics or bumps in political advertising -- with national TV expected to decline 12.3% to $24.2 billion. Taking out the Olympics, the market will still drop 7.9%.
“This should be driven by continued pressure at U.S. cable networks while we expect more stability at broadcast networks thanks to sports.”
Nathanson adds that digital/connected TV advertising will play a strong role, especially advertising video-on-demand (AVOD) platforms.
“The launch and growth of new ad-supported tiers at Amazon Prime Video, Netflix and Disney+ should pull an even greater share of dollars away from linear TV.”
For example, AVOD is estimated to rise 35.2% to $13.8 billion. One major increase will come from Amazon Prime Video, which added an advertising-option starting in January of this year, “bringing overnight a flood of new inventory into the CTV [connected TV] market.”
Amazon is estimated to pull in $1.98 billion in advertising revenue from Prime Video -- which would rocket it into second place behind Hulu. The Disney-owned streamer is estimated to total $3.08 billion in ad revenue in 2024.
It also estimates Peacock will get to $1.82 billion, with Netflix reaching $1.77 billion and Disney+ getting to $420 million.
Wayne, since both linear TV and CTV are "TV", why is it so important that one "beats" the other. What we are seeing is a natural transition---a very gradual one----in how consumers obtain their "TV" content , what new choices they can make and how they pay for it. Things are always changing. For example once upon a time---the 1980s---- daytime TV was loaded with serials and they scored huge ratings---but as it happened they also cost too much so when rating fragmentation set in, the serials gradually dropped by the wayside in favor of much cheaper game and talk shows---yet daytime TV is still with us. The same thing goes for most other types of TV content. If you over do it---by copying someone else's plan---- and don't control your costs, you get into trouble and have to adjust---as many streaming services are learning today. So, is streaming---which is a money losing nightmare for many services----doomed. Nope, but serious rethinks are in order---and in process.