• by Wayne Friedman , May 2, 2024

NBA incumbent TV sports-rights holders Walt Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery could take a hit to their combined $1.4 billion in annual NBA ad revenue if NBCUniversal gets a piece of the big sports TV programming package, according to John Hodulik, media analyst of UBS.

Adding NBCUniversal into the current NBA live, linear TV networks lineup could mean a 15% to 20% reduction in total advertising dollars for Disney (ABC, ESPN) and Warner Bros. (TNT, TBS) -- currently at $809 million and $588 million, respectively.

NBCU could get 30% to 40% of the advertising inventory, according to Hodulik's projections.

That would mean a decline for Disney to $648 million and for Warner Bros. to $481 million.

NBCUniversal could see $519 million in annual NBA advertising dollars.

Looking at 18-49 viewers, UBS estimates that currently Disney gets a $70 CPM (cost per thousand viewers), with Warner Bros. coming in at $65 CPM.

Disney airs 96 hours of average TV commercial 18-49 NBA action, while Warner Bros. airs 75 hours.

This comes at a time when overall NBA rights fees could climb substantially -- to an estimated $2.6 billion on average per year for Disney (from $1.5 billion) and $2.5 billion for Warner Bros. (from $1.2 billion). 

If NBCU secures a deal, it is projected to also have a $2.5 billion-per-year average rights fee.

Amazon could also be a factor, and would impact advertising for Disney and Warner Bros., as it is reportedly also close to securing a streaming package.

Hodulik says it would also result in some ad inventory carved out from the incumbent deals.