• by Wayne Friedman , August 30, 2024

Netflix will continue to press its “leverage” over its competitors when it comes to acquiring key library and other programming content, according to analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak, CEO and media analyst of Pivotal Research Group.

“The key for Netflix going forward is to press their advantages... because the larger they get the more leverage they have over their peers/content creators,” he says. This would help “them to drive subscriber/ARPU [average revenue per user] growth and the bigger the moat grows around their core business model.”

He believes then “these streaming players/media players have no choice but to continue to sell their premium library content to Netflix to offset their own poor returns in streaming.”

Bolstering this last argument is the continued strong viewing of library/acquired programming, as evidenced from Nielsen’s recent top streaming results for the week of July 29-August 4.

Nine of the top ten of all streaming TV programming content was “acquired” TV series. Netflix had ownership (or shared ownership) of four of those streaming titles -- “Grey’s Anatomy,” “Prison Break,” “Bob Burgers” and “All American.” 

It also had the top original movie (shared with Paramount+) “Jack Reacher: Never Go Back.” In addition, it had six of the top-ten originals.

Currently, Netflix has a dominant premium streaming 8.4% share of total TV/streaming viewing among persons two years and older for July, according to Nielsen’s ‘Total TV/Streaming’ measure.

Wlodarczak also believes that, regulatory hurdles aside, Netflix could make key programming acquisitions -- possibly that of Sony Television Entertainment content library as well as sports leagues such as Formula 1 or UFC/WWE. He believes this will deepen its core business and offset the possible content cost of inflation -- specifically for sports.

Globally, he estimates that total subscribers will now grow to 384 million in 2030, from an estimated 278 million currently.