Theatrical movie box-office revenues are now estimated to land at $8.7 billion -- down 3% from 2023 ($8.9 billion), according to estimates from Guggenheim Securities, Deadline and Comscore.
All that isn't bad. But it is still down around $3 billion from pre-pandemic years, with comparisons to the $11.4 billion take for the 2019 year.
Walt Disney was the big winner year-over-year -- up 17% to $2.22 billion, according to estimates -- thanks to major hits including “Inside Out 2,” “Deadpool & Wolverine” and “Moana 2.”
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Other studios slipped somewhat. NBCUniversal was down 3% to $1.88 billion, with “Wicked” and Despicable Me 4” its best results. Warner Bros. was off 17% to $1.16 billion. Its top earners were “Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice” and “Dune: Part Two."
Sony Pictures was even at $1 billion, getting the best out of “Bad Boys: Ride or Die” and “It Ends With Us.” Paramount joined Disney in year-over-year improvement -- gaining 5% to $879.5 million. “Gladiator II” and “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” were its headliners.
For TV networks and streaming platforms, the bigger issue is how much those studios now spend -- and get media value from -- national TV advertising.
Latest estimates show national TV advertising spending and media value of theatrical movies is dramatically down by 24% to $939.4 million for all of 2024, according to EDO Ad EnGage. There was a sharp 29% decline in overall airings versus 2023 to 201,060.
A major part of these estimates includes airings on movie studios’ sister business -- broadcast/cable TV networks.
That means those networks do not see bottom-line ad-revenue gains. However, the studios do benefit from lower or zero cost when it comes to ad-time exposure.
That aside, there is certainly a gradual shift in media planning -- although it is now increasing -- when it comes to all things digital and streaming.
One industry estimate some years ago showed movie studios spend around 14% of movie ad budgets on digital media. The bigger news is that digital ads can drive a much larger portion (around 46%) of overall box-office revenue for a film.
TV accounted for 82% of an overall wide-release film’s marketing yielding 42% of the revenue.
Digital media seems to be much further along now. So the overall decline in national TV spend/media value should not come as much of a surprise -- especially considering that the young moviegoing audience drives a huge share of overall theatrical business.
The question is what comes next for linear TV networks. Movie studios still need to walk a fine line between getting big theatrical movie revenue and helping to boost results for their TV networks.
But now with under $1 billion in national TV spend/media value, it seems we have reached a new threshold when it comes to engaging audiences -- especially young customers, as they head out and spend money for the big screen.