Commentary

NFL On Streamers: An Ongoing Factor In Subscriber Churn?

Big-time, expensive sports TV programming apparently doesn't do much to retain new subscribers on streaming platforms, according to new data from Samsung Ads.

So what makes consumers stick around after major sports franchises end their respective seasons? That may be something streamers continue to worry about.

A Samsung survey shows that of the new subscribers who signed up last fall for streaming platforms during the NFL season, 65% opted out of their streaming subscriptions once the season has ended.

The trouble is that Samsung did not identify the particular streaming platforms for that NFL content.

We might guess the obvious ones include Amazon Prime Video (“Thursday Night Football”), Paramount+ (which simulcasts games with CBS) and Peacock (which simulcasts games with NBC’s “Sunday Night Football.”). We may also consider Disney+ as well as ESPN+, which airs some “Monday Night Football” games, alongside ESPN and/or ABC.

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Samsung's results come from ACR (automatic content recognition) TV screen data via Samsung smart “active” TV sets over the past 12 months from the second quarter 2024 through the second quarter 2025.

From the July-August 2024 period to the September-December 2024 period, viewers during the NFL season on streamers grew 28%, and the number of hours per viewer per month was 57% higher.

On the flip side -- after the season concluded -- (looking at the September-December period versus the March 2025 period) viewership on streaming services dropped 33%, with 59% fewer hours per viewer per month.

But the devil is in the details. Samsung doesn’t reveal any drilled-down data per streamer platform in terms of gaining and losing program viewership or particular entertainment and sports genres.

Yes, the NFL is a big driver. But viewership historically spikes in the fall as veteran (older) TV viewers behaviorally still respond to new seasons of TV shows for the usual September/October start of the TV season.

For example, should we not factor in high-profile, non-sports content: for example, the hugely popular “Yellowstone” (which is actually a Paramount Network show) that started up the second part of Season Five on Peacock? The show was believed to be in its final season -- but some speculate that it might continue.

Samsung’s data is interesting for sure. And a chart does in fact show the ‘churn’ of subscribers -- those who opt out of streaming subscriptions -- was lower in the fourth quarter through the first January in the first quarter than other parts of the year.

That said, after the Super Bowl in February it appears that streaming churn -- subscribers leaving platforms -- grew again.

No doubt individual streamers' platforms have their own server-census data when it comes to viewing and subscriber gains and losses.

Are they fine-tuning new season releases of their popular TV shows and movies -- alongside major sports content -- as they accumulate more historical trends?

In that regard, what is the specific behavior when it comes to the NFL and its continued high viewership and engagement on streamers?

The NFL has always attempted to air more football -- everywhere (internationally) and at other times of the year. (Hello, UFL, which goes for its third season starting next year.)

For sure, TV networks and streamers might like to see high-level NFL-branded legacy football teams’ games aired all year round.

From all of this you may raise an eyebrow at the new high-profile, sports-focused ESPN streamer, launching next week, to be priced at a sky-high $29.99 a month.

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