• by Sarah Mahoney , 5 hours ago

The National Retail Federation reports that a record 202.9 million people shopped between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday this year, easily topping last year’s 197 million and beating NRF’s own forecast by about 16 million. The trade group says the blowout weekend keeps spending on track for holiday sales growth of 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024, crossing the $1 trillion mark for the first time.

It’s not that there aren’t pressures on people, trade group execs said. It’s just that shoppers build a “moat” around December spending, even if they cut back in other areas. “Holiday spending and holiday shopping is an essential part of the budget,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said on a press call, calling the five-day stretch “a very, very solid beginning to the holiday season.”

The survey-based tally shows 129.5 million consumers shopped in stores, up 3% from last year, and 134.9 million shopped online, up 9%. Almost all weekend shoppers bought holiday-related items, spending an average of $338 — up from $316 a year ago and the highest since 2019. About two-thirds of that spending went to gifts.

Other data sets tell a similarly upbeat — if heavily promo-driven — story. Adobe Analytics says Cyber Monday generated $14.25 billion in online sales, up 7.1% year over year, with Cyber Week reaching $44.2 billion, up 7.7%. Steep discounts in electronics, toys and apparel did much of the work. Buy now/pay later usage hit a record $1.03 billion on Cyber Monday, up 4.2%, as more shoppers spread payments over time.

Mastercard SpendingPulse estimates Black Friday retail sales rose 4.1% from last year, with ecommerce up 10.4% and in-store sales up 1.7%. “Consumers are showing incredible savviness this season,” said Michelle Meyer, chief economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute, in the announcement. “They’re navigating an uncertain environment by shopping early, leveraging promotions, and investing in wish-list items.”

The NRF's top destinations for gift shopping? Supermarkets, at 47%, followed by online at 45%.

NRF chief economist Mark Matthews said consumers are “very, very promotional, very sales-focused,” and more attuned to price comparisons than ever. For retailers, the record traffic and mid-single-digit sales gains are welcome. But with much of that strength tied to discounts and BNPL, the holiday surge looks more like a protected splurge than proof that broader consumer jitters have melted away.