• by Joe Mandese , 4 hours ago

Revising its previous global ad spending forecast down nearly a point, Dentsu this morning nonetheless issued a new forecast projecting the global ad economy will surpass $1 trillion for the firs time, based on its benchmarks.

The forecast, which has become an annual tradition for the Tokyo-based agency holding company, marks the first in what has historically been a series of similar year-end updates issued by several other major holding companies, but following the demise of Interpublic's, the deprecation of Publicis', that leaves only WPP Media poised to issue a year-end outlook for the ad economy, which is expected to be released Monday morning during the opening ad panel of UBS annual communications and media conference in New York City.

For the U.S., Dentsu has shaved just three-tenths of a point off last year's forecast, and now projects U.S. ad spending will expand 5.0% to $415 billion, accounting for nearly 40% of its projected $1.039 trillion global advertising estimate for 2026.

And while Dentsu has tempered its longer-term ad growth estimates for global ad economy, it actually nudged the U.S. up slightly for 2027 and projects it will expand 5.2% in 2028.

Dentsu's revised outlooks for the rest of the major global advertising markets can be seen below, but Asia-Pacific is projected to be the relatively strongest region, outpacing global ad growth by three-tenths of a point.

“Crossing the trillion dollar threshold signals a structural shift in how growth is created," Dentsu Global Practice President-Media and Integrated Solutions Will Swayne notes in a statement issued with the forecast this morning, adding: "Media is now the front door to every brand and the most powerful system for driving relevance, creativity and value at scale.”

That's a telling statement coming from one holding company, days after another -- Omnicom -- rebranded its media services operations with the tagline: "We design ecosystems for growth."

That said, Dentsu's Swayne also stated: “In the Algorithmic Era the brands that win will be the ones that understand how discovery and decision making are shaped by algorithms and use media as a strategic engine to earn attention and build long term advantage. 2026 rewards the marketers who innovate with intent, design for outcomes and meet people in the moments that matter.”