• by Sarah Mahoney , Staff Writer, Yesterday

If retailers were hoping for a late-breaking twist to the 2025 holiday season, Mintel’s latest read offers little reason to expect one. U.S. consumers plan to shop — nearly all say they will — but they’re closing out the season with budgets set, deals mapped out and very little appetite for friction.

In other words, the results most retailers have already planned for are the ones they’re likely to get.

Mintel finds the overwhelming majority of U.S. shoppers expect to rely on at least one money-saving tactic this holiday, reinforcing a value-first mindset that has become less a reaction to economic pressure and more a permanent shopping posture. Black Friday and Cyber Monday remained central to their plans, not as impulse moments but as deliberate milestones, pulling spending earlier and flattening the traditional December surge.

That planning shows up in how consumers are thinking about gifts, too. Rather than buying broadly, many shoppers are concentrating their spending on fewer, more intentional purchases — particularly higher-ticket items like electronics and jewelry. The shift raises the stakes for retailers: Price matters, but products need to feel worth it, whether through quality, longevity or perceived meaning. Buy now, pay later remains a helpful tool, but not a silver bullet.

Online continues to do the heavy lifting for convenience and price comparison, but Mintel’s data suggests physical retail still carries emotional weight. Seven in 10 U.S. adults say a festive in-store experience adds to their enjoyment of the holidays, positioning stores less as fulfillment nodes and more as places that can still inspire browsing and discovery — if they give shoppers a reason to linger.

Technology is also playing a larger role in how people decide what to buy. Nearly half of U.S. shoppers say they are open to using AI tools for gift inspiration, with younger consumers leading the way. For retailers, that openness creates an opportunity to ease decision fatigue with smarter recommendations and clearer curation, especially during peak deal periods.

Omnichannel competence is no longer a differentiator.  Two-fifths of U.S. consumers say they increasingly choose retailers based on the availability of both physical and digital options, and expectations around click-and-collect, easy returns and inventory visibility are now baked in. When those basics fail, shoppers move on.

Mintel’s outlook doesn’t point to a surprise rebound or a holiday splurge cycle waiting to reemerge. Instead, it confirms a season defined by discipline — on the consumer side and, increasingly, on the retail side as well. Demand is there, Mintel said, but retailers that execute cleanly will benefit most.