• by Sarah Mahoney , Yesterday

This year's back-to-school season is arriving with a mixed message: record spending, matched by real financial strain. The National Retail Federation's forecast is out, and on the surface, looks promising -- at least for retailers. The group reports that those with students in kindergarten through high school intend to spend an average of $864 this year, a slight increase from $858 last year. The NRF anticipates that total spending will top $43.3 billion, a record.

But those increases reflect dollar totals, masking the steady drumbeat of inflation. Parents will indeed be spending more. They'll also be getting less. Deloitte, which surveyed a different population with a different methodology, finds a BTS reality that's quite different: $30.4 billion in total spending, roughly flat from last year. When adjusted for inflation, that means spending is likely to decline 6% this year.

Both groups are keenly aware of the pressure parents face this season, not just for new backpacks and gym shoes, but everything else. The Bureau of Labor Statistics just reported grocery prices rose for the fifth straight month, and gasoline prices are still roughly 20% higher than they were a year ago.  

The NRF notes that 62% of shoppers had already started back-to-school shopping by early July — down a bit from 67% at the same point last year, but still higher than the 55% reported in 2024. Meanwhile, 46% of those who haven't finished shopping say they're waiting for better deals before completing their lists.

"Affordability is a concern for families and a top priority for retailers as we enter the back-to-school season," said Mark Mathews, NRF’s chief economist and executive director of research, in the announcement. "Shoppers are keeping value front and center as they look for ways to make their dollars go further."

The NRF, which conducts its research with Prosper Insights & Analytics, also notes that 47% say they plan to purchase only the essentials needed for the start of the school year and replenish as the year goes on. And 54% pounced on seasonal promotions in June, including Prime Day, Walmart Deals and Target Circle Deal Days, specifically for school-related purchases. Retailers are well aware and reaching out to shoppers early: Amazon, for example, launched its Back to School shop in mid-May.

Deloitte points to the trend in reverse, with more parents delaying shopping. It's not because they're off enjoying the beach — it's because they think they'll find better value by waiting. Just 48% of planned back-to-school spending is expected to happen by the end of July, down from 61% in 2025. An additional 31% of planned spending is expected to take place in early August.

This year, Deloitte also picked apart the shopping strategies of a group it calls "hyper value-seekers" — those who employ at least four different bargain-hunting strategies, including brand-switching, choosing more affordable retailers, buying private-label products instead of name brands, and using cashback websites. Despite their deal-hunting habits, these shoppers aren't the ones cutting back hardest: They're expected to spend 14% more than other shoppers this season, suggesting that for this group, value-seeking is less about spending less and more about spending on purpose.