• by Joe Mandese , 2 hours ago

Local ad-spending growth will lag the total U.S. market expansion this year, but will be even more adversely impacted by the decline in political ad spending next year, effectively showing no year-over-year growth in 2027.

That's the current conclusion of local U.S. advertising bean counter BIA Advisory Services, which updated its annual forecasts this morning.

“Political spending came in higher than we anticipated in April, with most of the incremental spending flowing into TV," explains Vice President Forecasting and Data Analysis Senan Mele, adding: "Legal Services was also notable in this update, reaching $9.3 billion, up 4.6% from the prior forecast.

"Despite higher media costs and a more fragmented media environment, law firms continue to invest heavily in television, both linear and streaming, where the ability to reach large audiences and generate qualified leads continues to drive demand.”

Compared with MediaPost's composite of leading total U.S. ad-market forecasters, that means local will expand nearly as much as the total market in this midterm election-fueled marketplace, but will fall off the cliff next year, delivering no growth compared with a 4.4% gain in projected total ad spending, including the effects of political advertising.

Excluding political advertising, BIA projects local ad-spending volume will expand just 0.2% this year, but did not publish an estimate for next year.