Advertising pays the bill for the Internet, funding
most websites and generating all or a significant amount of the profits at Alphabet (Google), Meta, TikTok, Alibaba, Amazon, Microsoft and Apple.
Almost nobody has a better view of the
Internet than Matthew Prince, the founder and co-CEO of Cloudflare, the infrastructure company that handles more than 10% of the world’s Internet traffic.
Prince recently gave several
powerful interviews on the impact of rapidly growing AI bot traffic on the Internet’s business model. In a nutshell, he believes that AI bots will break the Internet’s 28-year-old business
model -- advertising -- and soon.
Historically, bot crawlers represented less than 30% of Internet traffic -- a number that had been stable for years -- but that has all changed.
Just
four months ago, bots on the Internet surpassed human traffic for the first time and are expected to double human traffic by year end.
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Furthermore, Prince contends that the math of the Internet
now suggests bot traffic growth will dramatically outpace humans, driving the bot-to-human traffic ratio to 1000X within five years.
This is a big problem for the Internet. Referral traffic
metered on human clicks is how Internet platforms and publishers are paid today. That works great to pay for the cost of supporting Internet traffic when two of every three pages are generated by
humans.
But bots don’t click. However, supporting rapidly growing bot traffic requires that publishers and platforms continue to scale up their infrastructure, which costs a lot of money
in data centers, as we all know.
Unfortunately, the Internet’s traffic growth will increasingly be “freeloading” bots, not humans paying with clicks.
Something will
have to give. Either platform and publisher profits drop, or everyone has to do more with less on the infrastructure side. You can’t have both.
Prince suggests that an answer may be
“pay-per-crawl” business models for publishers leveraging crypto-based micropayments, effectively moving the Internet from an ad-supported business to a subscription-based one. That would
be dramatic.
But the shift from a human-driven Internet to a bot-driven one doesn’t just pressure those who power publishing on the Internet -- it puts pressure on the entire advertising
industry.
Just as the Internet became dependent on advertising over these past decades, the world of advertising became dependent on the Internet.
What happens to the ad industry if
several hundred billions of dollars of performance ad spend each year is siphoned off by subscription micropayments?
This question begets some deeper fundamental questions about the future of
advertising, including:
Is it realistic that brands and retailers will have the ability to influence the consumer answer-engine experience? From launch and for many years after,
Google had no ads or few ads, and only scaled advertising up when it could on its own terms, not on the terms brands or retailers really wanted.
Could answer engines become brands and
retailers themselves rather than trying to service them? Amazon is doing this. So is Shein -- and it’s not a new concept. Montgomery Wards and Sears did it a long time ago.
Will media platforms that retain true human interactions become more scarce, thus more valuable for advertisers? In a world funded by those desiring to influence human consumption, it
only makes sense that those that can continue to maintain direct human interactions will have leverage. Who knows -- maybe high-engagement media channels with limited agentic mediation -- live events,
television, film, audio and reading -- will drive more advertising value going forward, not less.
What do you think? Who funds the Internet in its post-advertising future?
This
post was previously published in an earlier edition of Media Insider.