When I sat down with Zenith Media chief Lauren Hanrahan earlier this week we discussed a wide range of issues impacting media planning and buying, some of which may be part of future columns, but her response to an explicit question begins with this one:
"What is the next most …
Joe, the strike is impacting mostly those prime time shows that are "scripted", not most reality shows or the newsmags or sports or specials. Nor is it affecting the early AM, news or late night fare or daytime shows or the weekend stuff. So we are probably talking aout 20% of the broadcast TV network's total viewership. If this were to decline by 30% due to the decline in quality that would produce a net loss of only 6% in average minute ratings---over and above normal attrition caused by rating fragmentation, cord cutting, etc.
Also, the total GRPs to be delivered by the sellers in most deals is guaranteed, so if there is an unexpected shortfall, the seller has to make it up. In other words, the buyers will still get exactly what they were promised---so why is the reach of their buys threatened? The make good spots in prime time also contribute to reach. And most buys are not confined to broadcast TV network dramas and sitcoms---they involve other program genres as well as other dayparts and other forms of TV---cable and streaming. The strike may affect certain sellers re the performance of their scripted prime time shows, but that's about all---in my humble opinion.
Thank you Mr. Papazian. Excellent and astute insights as always.
Um, all the "late night fare" (except Nightline) has been in reruns since the strike started.