Barclays: Big 4 Upfront To Reap $8.2 Billion

As upfront week moves closer and networks pitch their wares and seek higher fares, a Wall Street firm effectively says, "Take care, recession!" Its prediction: the upfront market will be up 20% this summer.

Beyond a buoyed economy, Barclays Capital attributes an expected jump in the Big Four networks' take to a total $8.26 billion to, among other reasons, a current robust scatter market. Marketers paid handsomely for walk-up fees this spring -- up to 25% higher than upfront levels, per Barclays. And they may look to lock in prices this summer that would stretch through August 2011.

Another factor is a resurgence in the auto category, where Barclays said spending was down $3.5 billion in 2009 during bankruptcies and other disruptions. (It was not clear if that was just for networks or for all media.) A "return of these ad dollars could substantially drive upfront volume, especially for networks with heavy sports content," Barclays wrote in an April 28 report.

The NFL saw a boom in ratings last fall and could drive much of a 20% increase by itself. ABC is the only broadcaster without it, although its sister ESPN network has "Monday Night Football." NBC has a Sunday prime-time schedule; CBS and Fox Sunday afternoons.

advertisement

advertisement

As pre-upfront posturing has taken place, networks have suggested they could command double-digit CPM increases this summer. Barclays says high single-digits is more likely.

The sellout rate average for the Big Four should be in the 77% range, above the 70% of a year ago.

For individual networks, Barclays predicts that CBS will land a 27.5% increase in volume to $2.43 billion; Fox will be up 22% to $1.96 billion; ABC to increase 16.2% to $2.21 billion; and NBC will have a 12.8% bump to $1.65 billion.

The increase is a positive for NBC, of course, but trailing Fox by 19% in volume comes even as Fox has seven fewer hours a week to sell.

Barclays noted that a 20% increase in 2010 would be in line with what happened coming out of the last recession, when volume was up about 21% for the 2002-03 season.

Next story loading loading..