While digital’s “Big 2” continue to dominate the advertising marketplace, they will be dominating it a little less in the next few years, according to a new forecast released this morning by digital ad tracker eMarketer.
In its updated outlook, eMarketer projects the Big 2 will lose nearly two points of digital advertising market share, falling to 56.8% of the U.S. marketplace -- down from 58.5% in 2017.
The Big 2 will lose another point and a half next year, until their share of market begins to rebound again in 2020, according to eMarketer’s analysts, who attribute the correction to gains by longer-tail players -- especially Snapchat, which is gaining nearly a half a point per year currently.
Another factor that is slowing Facebook’s digital ad share growth, the analysts predict, is a corresponding deceleration in its audience growth.
“Facebook’s user growth in the US has slowed down and is now about the same as that of internet users, while News Feed ad prices may be reaching their limit,” explains eMarketer Senior Forecasting Director Monica Peart, adding that much of Facebook’s corporate ad growth will not come from its mothership, but from Instagram, which she predicts will “quickly become the engine that drives growth for the whole.”