• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, April 8, 2020

It has been assumed by most media analysts, media buyer and ad executive surveys, and a variety of pundits that the Big Digital platforms would be first to feel the impact of the ad recession, because digital media is generally bought on more of a "scatter" basis and tied to fewer long-term commitments. Well now there is market-based proof.

An analysis of post-COVID-19 trading values for Facebook advertising worldwide, and in the U.S., shows CPMs have bottomed out to their lowest point ever.

As of data available Tuesday, Facebook's worldwide CPM fell an all-time low of $1.95, according to data analyzed by Boston-based agency Gupta Media.

Similarly, the average CPM in the United States fell below $3 for the first time in the past two years on Sunday, March 22, and has remained at a $3 CPM every day since then, with the exception of Saturday, March 28, when it reached $3.02.

The average CPM in the United States from March 2018 to February 2020 was $4.67, suggesting a drop in prices of at least 36% from the average for the last two years.

“We’ve observed between a 35% to 50% decline in average CPMs across the Facebook Ads marketplace in the countries most affected by COVID-19 in the last couple of weeks,”  says Gupta Media's Strategy & Analytics Expert Alex Palmer.