Local Media Forecast To See A 3.6% Drop In 2020

Even with the expected rise in political advertising in 2020, local media will now see a 3.6% year-over-year drop in advertising due to COVID-19, according to a new survey.

BIA Advisory Services says advertising across all media platforms will land at $144.3 billion this year --  a 10.6% drop from $161.3 billion projection the local media analysis company made in November 2019.

Local political advertising is expected to reach $7.1 billion. Local media -- especially TV stations -- will also suffer due to the postponement of the Summer Tokyo Olympic games, which were scheduled for late July/early August.

Local over-the-air TV stations will now get to $17 billion (down from a $17.8 billion previous projection), with digital local TV advertising down to $1.6 billion ($1.7 billion before).

The biggest local ad categories include direct mail, which is down 10% ($3.8 billion) from previous estimates to $33.5 billion; and mobile, which is down 8% ($2.2 billion) to $24.8 billion. The former will be affected by lower retail and financial spending, says BIA.



Online/interactive is forecast to be 8% lower ($1.7 billion) to $20.9 billion.

Newspapers are estimated to total 16% less to $7.3 billion from $8.7 billion, while over-the-air radio is expected to see a 13% drop ($1.7 billion) to $11.4 billion.

Decreased spending on local restaurants, leisure and entertainment will affect TV and radio, says BIA Advisory Services.

The estimate for local cable TV advertising is now 13% lower ($800 million) to $5.6 billion due to declining advertising from live sports programming.

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