
Local TV stations could see a 9% increase in
advertising revenues this year to $23.4 billion, but national TV networks -- broadcast and cable -- will drift lower, according to the latest MoffettNathanson Research, which projects that the major
four U.S. broadcast networks will sink 2% (to $14.7 billion) with national cable networks 0.5% lower to $28.8 billion.
Although total TV over-delivered in the first quarter in advertising revenue
-- up 8.0% in national TV (driven by the Olympics and political ads) -- the research firm expects some difficult periods later this year.
“Looking ahead, we forecast a mixed few quarters
for linear TV as the tailwinds of sports gambling and political rub horns against macro and continued supply chain-related headwinds,” says the authors of the research.
Projections for
local TV stations include a continued spike in political advertising, which Kantar has estimated to be a record of around $5.5 billion for all TV -- up from $4.5 billion in 2018, the previous midterm
election season.
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MoffettNathanson also estimates local cable (also to see benefits from higher political advertising) to be 9% for the year to $5.2 billion for the year.
U.S.
syndication advertising revenue is expected to sink 4% to $2.8 billion.
The rising star among all TV platforms continues to be premium streaming/advertising video-on-demand (AVOD) platforms,
projected to grow 44% to $11.1 billion. In total, the research company expects 6.5% higher advertising revenue for “total television” to $86.1 billion.
Estimated total TV
advertising for 2022 is expected to comprise 27% of the total U.S. ad market.
Online/digital will continue to be the dominant player with a 61% share. “Other” media to
comprise a 75 share; print media at a 4% number.
“We expect TV (including AVOD) to fall from a 27% share of the market in 2022 to a 23% share in 2025," MoffettNathanson says.