• by Laurie Sullivan  @lauriesullivan, November 25, 2022

Adobe Analytics expects the five days from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday -- known as Cyberweek -- to generate $34.8 billion in online spend, up 2.8% year-over-year (YoY) in 2022, and represent 16.3% share of the holiday season from November through December.

Mobile shopping struggled to grow for years. Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, believes this Thanksgiving will become an inflection point, where smartphones drove real growth.   

Mobile shopping drove 55% of online sales, up 8.3% YoY, an all-time record for Thanksgiving Day since 2012.

Cyber Monday will remain the year’s biggest online shopping day at $11.2 billion -- up 5.1% YoY. Black Friday is expected to bring in $9 billion by day’s end, up just 1% YoY.  

The analysis from Adobe Analytics, part of the Adobe Experience Cloud, aggregates more than one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.

Consumers hit a new record when it comes to spending on Thanksgiving Day at $5.29 billion -- up 2.9% YoY, per Adobe Analytics data.

In the holiday season so far, consumers have spent $77.74 billion in the first 24 days in November. Black Friday is expected to bring in $9 billion online today, up a mere 1% YoY.

Consumers can expect big discounts on Black Friday.

• Toys – 34% discounted
• Electronics – 27% discounted
• Computers – 18% discounted
• Apparel – 14% discounted
• Appliances – 14% discounted
• Televisions – 13% discounted

The top selling toys so far include Squishmallows, Roblox, Paw Patrol, Hot Wheels, Cocomelon and L.O.L Surprise Dolls, a longtime favorite. Top gaming consoles include Nintendo Switch, Xbox Series X, and PlayStation 5. Most popular games include God of War Ragnarök, FIFA 23, Madden 23, and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II. Other hot sellers: Apple Airpods, Instapots, Smart televisions, digital cameras, and gift cards.  

Categories that are performing especially well include online sales of strollers, up 133%, compared with the average daily sales in October 2022. Other categories showing strong demand include outdoor grills, up 131%; speakers, up 122%; and cameras, up 111%. 

Some consumers areembracing buy now pay later to manage budgets. On Thanksgiving Day, BNPL revenue online was up 1.3%, and orders were up 0.7%. Adobe expects BNPL usage to ramp up with the big shopping days—Black Friday, and Cyber Monday—on the horizon.  

For those stores open on Thanksgiving Day, online shopping picks up and curbside pickup was used in 13% of all online orders. This is down from 21% last year, and shows the impact of store closures today. Adobe expects curbside pickup to peak from Dec. 22 to Dec. 23, directly prior to Christmas Eve, and account for 35% of all orders.