• by Wayne Friedman , October 23, 2023

Despite ongoing prospects of a recession in 2024, U.S. local advertising is projected to rise 8.6% to $175.6 billion next year, according to BIA Advisory Services -- largely due to the expected spike in presidential and Senate-related political TV advertising.

Taking out political advertising -- around an estimated $11 billion -- BIA projects there will be a much smaller 2.2% improvement to $164.6 billion.

“We expect only a slight increase in ad spending due to both global and local economic trends that may create more cautious spending,” says Nicole Ovadia, vice president, forecasting & analysis for BIA Advisory Services.

The biggest gains for media platforms are expected for connected TV/OTT, 39.5% higher over 2023; over-the-air TV station broadcast, 30% higher; TV station-digital revenues, improving 24.3%; local cable TV, adding 19.7%; and out-of-home, up 9.4%.

In addition to much higher political ad spend -- over 20 times higher than of 2023 -- BIA says special restaurants, food and beverage stores will grow 17%, while real-estate business will climb 16.7%.

Traditional will still have a majority share of local TV advertising -- 52% ($91.5 billion) -- while digital media will be at a 48% share ($84.1 billion).

“Digital isn’t growing as fast as it once was,” says Ovadia. “Meta, Alphabet, and others lowered their advertising revenue expectations several times throughout 2023.”