After an essentially flat year in 2023, local media advertising will grow by 8.6%, to $175.6 billion in 2024 with political advertising, but by just 2.2% to $164.6 billion, when political ads are excluded, according to BIA Advisory Services’ just-released forecast for the year ahead.
Non-political advertising’s growth is expected to be restrained by concerns about a possible economic downturn, as well as a slowdown in digital advertising.
“Meta, Alphabet, and others lowered their advertising revenue expectations several times throughout 2023, which in turn has caused us to reflect these reductions in the digital ad spend we track across 96 business categories,” said Nicole Ovadia, vice president forecasting and analysis, BIA Advisory Services.
Ad spend across digital media is projected at $84.1 billion, or 48% of total media spend —down from 49% in 2023. Traditional media spend is pegged at $91.5 billion, for a one-point gain in share, to 52%.
Connected TV continues to show the fastest growth rate, projected at $39.5% for 2024.
Over-the-air (OTA) TV — still by far the largest local video category by dollar spend but lagging other video in projected CAGR growth (4.6%) through 2027 — is projected at 30% growth in 2024, driven by political.
Digital TV’s growth is forecast at 24.3%, and cable TV’s at 19.7%. Out-of-home media are forecast for 9.4% growth.
In addition to political (forecast for a 2028% leap), categories expected to see the biggest growth include special restaurants and food and beverage stores, at 17.2%, and realtors, at 16.7%.
Categories expected to see declines include veterinary services (-15.8%), online gambling (-15.3%) and funeral homes and services (-14.4%).