A new 2023-2024 estimate projects political advertising revenues will rise to $10.7 billion -- up from an earlier estimate of $10.2 billion, according to AdImpact.
This total would show 19% growth versus the 2019-2020 Presidential political advertising period, when political ad revenue totaled $9.02 billion.
The advertising research company says this breaks down to broadcast platforms (local and national) estimated at $5.35 billion, with local cable TV systems at $1.93 billion, connected TV at $1.51 billion and digital media at $1.12 billion.
Cable TV ad spending on networks is projected to total $309 million, with satellite-provided local media at $102 million.
The Presidential election is projected to take a total of $2.7 billion, with Senate candidates spending at $2.2 billion, House of Representatives candidates’ $1.8 billion, Governors' races, $469 million, and “down-ballot” candidates, $3.6 billion.
Through the end of June, AdImpact says, more than 7,400 political TV ads that have aired -- 700 more ads through this June than 2022 and 2,600 more than in 2020.
AdImpact says its projections come from data points of more than $33 billion in spending, from 18,000 elections, 45,000 unique political ads, and 24 million ad airings.
I wonder if they have calculated what the spending will be like if Biden doesn't drop out and many of his donors pull back rather than waste their money on a loser, compared to what happens if Harris replaces Biden at the top of the Dem ticket---at least giving them a chance to win in November. In the latter case, spending might soar even higher than these estimates suggest.