• by Wayne Friedman , May 9, 2025

Reversing its revenue miss in the fourth quarter, The Trade Desk had higher-than-expected Q1 2025 results, rising 25% to $616 million.

The big demand-side ad platform witnessed its stock go up 6% on Thursday and 11% in aftermarket trading to $66.42.

This would be a sharp reversal of the previous quarterly earning results where Trade Desk underperformed analyst/company estimates -- witnessed core-advertising revenue (san political advertising) rising just 17%.

All that crushed the stock, down a massive 32% on the day -- all of which had analysts worried. Days later it was down a massive 64% (to $45.27) from its $128.58 high. The company's previously had 33 consecutive earning period with met or exceeded financial expectations.

Still, going forward, there is concern -- expressed by analysts on the Thursday earnings call -- heavy DSP competition is coming in the CTV (connected TV) space. Specifically, this was about threat of Amazon’s DSP on the prospects of The Trade Desk. 

Analysts say Amazon DSP offers lower pricing on CTV platforms, which can drive volume higher. This is especially crucial for brands that access ad inventory on Amazon's Prime Video premium streamer, rather than going to open, third-party DSPs like The Trade Desk.

“Given the current challenges facing AVOD/FAST players in terms of both CPM [cost per thousand viewer] prices ranges and fill rates, we expect that Amazon will gain access to these undifferentiated platforms and use their first party data to push more dollars their way,” says Michael Nathanson, co-founder/media analyst of MoffettNathanson Research.

Jeff Green, CEO of The Trade Desk minimizes the potential effect of the Amazon demand-side platform, saying: “DSP is really there as a buying tool for Prime Video.” 

And Dan Salmon, media analyst for New Street research, says: “Amazon DSP has existed for over five years, whereas Prime Video ad inventory has been available for a little over five quarters." 

In its guidance for the second quarter of 2025, the company projects a 17% gain to $682 million.