• by Laurie Sullivan , Staff Writer @lauriesullivan, Yesterday

How much will generative AI-based ads, creative, and tools increase revenue for platforms, brands, agencies and publishers? This question has become part of a foundation across the industry.

"By the end of the decade, we expect over 90% of digital ad spend on the major platforms to utilize some form of gen AI ad creative, ranging from simple format adjustments which are already common, right up to full video creation, which remains in the very early stages," New Street Research analysts wrote in a note published Friday.

The analysts say gains will depend on adoption levels and conversion improvements, but GAI creative tools could boost annual ad revenue between 1% and 2% during the next several years, and up to 4% by the end of the decade.

Tools like the one Adobe launched this week, Express for Ads, will mostly appeal initially to small businesses. Even large brands will require agency support to ensure consistent brand messages and compliance because some systems still are highly complex.

Meta has been the only company to offer initial data about the use of GAI creative tools for advertising and performance improvements, so the analyst firm built a model using Meta data and applied it to Amazon and Google. Analysts built out a proxy to explore early data points.

Although there has been significant GAI adoption of ad creative tools, humans are still heavily involved in the process.

Some of the Meta data used to determine incremental revenue from GAI ad creative is a bit old — for example, about 10 million advertisers in Q3 2020 —  but the analyst firm estimates this figure for each year in the current decade, growing in 2024 to 28.6% of its advertisers, 14 million, using GAI.

As of Q2 2025, about 5.2 million advertisers — about one-third of total estimated advertisers — have used at least one of Meta’s GAI ad creative tools.

And based on a series of numbers, which are very detailed, New Street Research Analysts estimate about 85% of advertisers will use some type of GAI creative tool from a company by 2027.

New Street Research analysts are bullish on GAI, creative platforms and tools. Its base assumes the rollout and coming improvements in GAI ad creative will boost ad revenue by $2.8 billion in 2025 and $28 billion in 2030.

Analysts forecast incremental ad revenue for Meta from GAI creative will reach as high as $40 billion in 2030 and as low as $16 billion.

But it’s all predicated on small company adoption to support automation, similar to what Google did with search advertising.

For Google, since the company has not disclosed adoption of GAI ad creative tools data points, nor the rate of conversion improvement, analysts assume its adoption and performance improvement lag Meta.

Analysts estimate the percentage of ad revenue supported by GAI ad creative tools for Google is between about 65% compared to 89%.

Performance improvements for ad revenue supported by GAI ad creative tools is between 7% and 13%. Revenue will likely range between $18 billion and $45 billion for GAI ad creative in 2030.

Amazon has not disclosed data points either, but the New Street Research analysts estimate between $5 billion to $13 billion for GAI ad creative in 2030.