• by Joe Mandese , 5 hours ago

As we approach the early December period when some of the big agency holding companies -- well, at least one this year -- update their annual ad-spending forecasts for the year ahead, we can all take some solace in the fact that the U.S. federal government shutdown did not slow the expansion of the advertising marketplace.

According to a new analysis from Guideline, U.S. advertisers spent half again as much during the October 1 - November 12 shutdown as they did during the previous three quarters of 2025.

That said, there undoubtedly may be seasonal or even cyclical reasons for the upward expansion so far this quarter, but at least at this point, it does not look like 2025 is ending on a downward note.

As for the not-too-distant future beyond that, it is still unclear how much of a lag effect the protracted shutdown had on specific advertising categories with the greatest exposure to it.

“While it is impossible to understand what long-term impact the government shutdown will have on the broader economy, we feel confident that the ad market will begin to show that impact long before the economic data will, especially in the pharma and travel sectors, which will feel more immediate effects," says Guideline Chief Insights & Analytics Officer Sean Wright.

That said, Wright currently is predicting the U.S. ad market will weaken during the first half of 2026 "as consequences of the shutdown begin to make their way through the market." Specifically, related to disruptions in the travel and pharmaceutical categories.

Based on Guideline's analysis of "forward bookings" of media buys, airline ad spending is expected to remain elevated through year-end, but beyond the holidays, it remains uncertain what will happen to airline, rental car and cruise line ad spending as a result of the shutdown.

The impact on pharma is a little more clear, as the shutdown is estimated to have pushed approval for 10 to 20 novel new prescription drugs into 2026, which is expected to see category declines during the first half of the year.

When I asked Wright how the disruption in ad spending compares with previous government shutdowns, he said that's difficult to discern.

"It's hard to say how the longer-term effects will compare," he explained, adding: "One thing that is complicating matters is the additional efforts that were made to furlough or fire existing federal workers. We think that will have a profound impact in the longer term both on the economy and the ad market but it's too early to say how or where."

Meanwhile, stay tuned until mid-December when the holdcos start releasing their new year outlooks.