• by Wayne Friedman , 6 hours ago

Major legacy TV advertising platforms -- national and local TV -- will continue to see another decline in 2026.

Excluding political advertising, national TV advertising will sink 2% to $27.9 billion (from $28.4 billion in 2025), according to projections from Madison and Wall.

Core local TV (also excluding political) is expected to be down 3% to $13.5 billion (from $13.9 billion).

Digital TV -- legacy-owned and digital-first streaming platforms as well as connected TV (CTV) platforms -- are estimated to be 3% higher to $21.0 billion.

Overall analysis shows that total TV advertising (linear, streaming and local TV) continue to decline -- even while streaming platforms keep growing.

For example, total 2026 TV advertising (excluding political) is estimated to see a 2.4% decline -- somewhat of an acceleration from a 1.4% pullback for the full-year 2025. This came despite fourth-quarter 2025 gains by national TV at 3.4%, local TV at 3.2%; and digital TV at 20%.

”Local TV clearly benefited from the crowding-out effect on [core ad] budgets that political spending had in 2024, and on a two-year comparison budgets are still eroding,” according to Madison and Wall.

Digital TV continues to see benefits from higher advertising interest on Netflix, Vizio, HBO Max, Tubi, Peacock, Roku and other streaming/CTV platforms.

“We also believe that to some degree CTV’s growth is fueled not just from budgets that used to be in linear national TV, but also from local TV budgets migrating to geo-targeted streaming campaigns," according to Madison and Wall.

Digital TV (streaming) advertising revenue for the current 2026 year will dramatically slow to a 3% increase in 2026, from a 12% increase in 2025.