Thanks to an assist from big sporting events, including the
Winter Olympic Games, U.S. ad spending surged 11.5% in February vs. the same month a year ago.
In fact, NBC Sports' so-called "Legendary February" -- which included 17 days of Olympics, Super
Bowl LX, the NBA All-Star game, and other high-profile sports -- generated millions in incremental ad sales vs. prior-year ad spending.
That's the good news following a tepid +2.4% start to
the year in January, but the bad news may yet be on the horizon due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, including the war in Iran and the soaring price of oil.
“We are keeping a close
eye on how advertisers are shifting their spend," explains Guideline Chief Insights and Analytics Officer Sean Wright, adding: "Given how many campaigns are already scheduled to run and budgets are
already spent, we are expecting to see more of the pull back to start late Q2 and into early Q3."
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While Wright expects ad demand spurred by the World Cup to "mask" some volatility in the U.S.
ad market, he cautions: "If oil hits $110 a barrel or unemployment starts to move about 4.8%, we are expecting to see budgets start to shift.”
The categories most immediately sensitive
to oil price fluctuations include travel, cruises and airlines, but Wright says indirect categories such as restaurants, personal care brands and automakers are also sensitive to price changes as
consumers shift spending or cut back as gas prices rise.