Commentary

HBO Max + Paramount+: What Will The Combo Really Become?


Library content on streaming platforms can be a major focus for consumers. Is their duplication -- perceived or otherwise -- something to consider?

That’s something big media companies need to analyze -- especially with regard to the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal that is now moving ahead.

Merging the two companies' big premium streaming platforms into one -- Paramount+ and HBO Max -- just to get a better scale, may not be so easy.

The good news for both is that library content has significant value.

Traditional shows and TV program brands such as “NCIS,” “Blue Bloods,” “The Good Wife” “Star Trek” (on Paramount+); and “Game of Thrones," “The Sopranos," and “Succession” (HBO Max) continue to see steady viewership.

advertisement

advertisement

In light of other trends for new shows, this is a good thing. For example, Netflix seems to be slipping in daily viewer engagement overall -- especially with some new shows.

Perhaps those older shows are doing their job of keeping their subscribers happy?

This is not to say that Netflix doesn’t have library TV series. It typically still has a lot of broadcast network, full-year episodes of series like “Grey’s Anatomy,” “Young Sheldon,” “The Rookie” and “NCIS.”

Netflix and other streaming services do share library TV shows on a non-exclusive basis -- sometimes offering different yearly episode content.

This comes as price-conscious streaming subscribers continue to analyze where they can pare down overall monthly costs.

Is there duplication that consumers need to figure out to make these decisions?

Well, it isn’t just library shows. It can be consumers' individual choices of streaming platforms.

Looking at the still-in-process Paramount-Warner Bros. merger, Morgan Stanley says there is subscriber overlap among those companies' streaming platforms --HBO Max and Paramount+ -- around 28% of subscribers -- which is not good news.

The positive news is that 23% of respondents who did not subscribe to either service said they would likely add it as an additional streaming service. Another 17% said it would replace another service.

Morgan Stanley guesses the combined HBO Max/Paramount+ could grow to 240 million global users by 2030 from around 220 million currently.

This combination is projected to bring it “strong quality engagement, improving frequency and ultimately stickiness & pricing power.”

What do investors really want from this?

Analysts are focusing on the $6 billion a year in synergistic savings. That is a big goal but one that will be needed to bring down the monstrous debt of $80 billion on this $111 billion deal.

Quicker growth is needed especially as there are estimates foundational live, linear TV networks for the combined company will see its share of cash flow for the entire company drop to under 50% by 2028 to around 30% by 2030 according to Morgan Stanley.

Continued focus will be how they manage (and combine) their high-profile growth streaming business. And not just new TV and movie production. But what to do with its overall library product duplication.

Next story loading loading..