As mobile continues to solidify its position as the gateway to consumer attention, advertising in mobile channels will account for 30.5% of global advertising expenditure in 2020, up from 19.2% in 2017, according to a new forecast from Zenith.
In two years, money spent on mobile advertising will be more than twice the money spent on desktop advertising ($187 billion versus $88 billion in 2020) and just behind the $192 billion spent on TV advertising, with Zenith expecting mobile expenditures to overtake TV in 2021.
However, brands must reassess their customer acquisition strategies as they shift their budgets toward mobile. Zenith’s research reveals that potential customers are 53% as likely to recall television ads as existing customers, but for mobile ads this falls to 41%.
While mobile’s growth will remain strong, advertisers are not ignoring other media channels.
Cinema, notably, is growing at 16% a year, thanks to the medium’s investment in new screens, successful movie franchises, and better international marketing.
Zenith forecasts that television and radio will grow by 1% a year to 2020, while out-of-home advertising grows by 3% a year. Print advertising will continue to shrink by an average of 5% a year between 2017 and 2020, while magazine ad spend will shrink by 6%. This refers only to advertising within print titles. Publishers’ online revenues are counted within the desktop and mobile internet totals.
Collectively, global advertising expenditure is projected to grow 4.5% this year -- down from March's 4.6% prediction because Zenith has since revised its estimated figures for 2017 slightly upward.
For now, overall forecasts for 2019 and 2020 remain unchanged at 4.2% and 4.3%, respectively.
The U.S. will contribute 26% of the $75 billion projected spending growth between 2017 and 2020 and China will contribute 22%, followed by India (5%) and Indonesia (4%).
Despite uncertainties over macroeconomic policy and trade matters, North American expenditures are forecast to grow 3.3% in 2018, and by an average of 3.2% a year to 2020.