• by Sean Hargrave , Staff Writer, January 2, 2019

There is no getting away from what the big news in ecommerce and retail will be at the start of the year. Tomorrow Next is due to release its trading statement for the festive period, and already The Guardian is warning revenue could be down as much as 13% compared to last year.

Debenhams is not planning to issue a trading update until January 10th, and yet still the moment shares were traded for the first time in the New Year this morning, nearly a tenth was wiped off its value. It is one of several retail brands that entered the festive period on the back of a shocking year and a background of profit warnings from several big names -- including as almost a complete surprise ASOS, the hugely successful online retailer.

This year was a perfect storm for retailers. Not only did they all feel compelled to counter low consumer confidence with year-round discounting, but they kept on slashing prices up to Black Friday and Cyber Monday and then beyond.

In my opinion, this discounting frenzy could only exacerbate the problem the high street faces. People are simply buying their Christmas gifts early -- and birthday presents too for those of us who have kids who have a late December birthday. 

The other problem with Black Friday this year was that it fell relatively early in the month, and so people had yet to be paid. I asked around in stores how the day had been for them, and most staff admitted it had been a bit of a damp squib. Hence, many started Black Friday deals early and carried them on for several days after Cyber Monday in a bid to kick the market into life and reach out to people when they got paid toward the end of the month.

I know you can never read too much into your own experience, but Black Friday weekend was a lot quieter when I was out in shops and so was the period up to Christmas. It was the same for the New Year sales.

Trust me, if you can go to major shopping centres and get parked easily and walk around freely when the big sales are on, you know it's not going to be good news for retailers. 

That is certainly my outtake, however. If I'm shopping with the family and not moaning about circling a car park or being bumped around trying to navigate the aisles of Superdry, then I know it's been a very quiet season for the stores.

One of the more depressing sights was Debenhams. You can forgive staff for being worried that their jobs are on the line as the debt-riddled chain prepares to close fifty stores, but a visit there was really just sad. The shelves looked like a discount jumble sale. I could only think the brand had made a bet on trying to be the destination for Secret Santa shoppers searching out a pointless gift for their fiver or tenner budget.

Regular readers will know this is something that I, and other writers, have predicted for much of last year. Constant discounting, poor confidence and a weak pound have meant this festive season was always going to be tough.

We could get an idea of how touch as early as tomorrow when Next will confirm whether The Guardian warning of a 13% drop in sales is accurate. The fashion chain store is usually first out of the blocks with its trading update after Christmas and so is seen as a bellwether brand for the state of the high street. 

I wish it were otherwise -- but I can only see it being the first of a number of disappointing announcements that will underscore how tough the past Christmas truly was.