eMarketer estimates that total U.S. TV ad spending -- including all national broadcast and cable and spot and local TV, excluding "digital" -- will decline 3% this year, and while it will expand again by another 1.0% in 2020 due to incremental spending from the presidential campaigns and the Summer Olympic Games, it "will not stave off a long-term decline for ad spending on the biggest traditional channel."
The report projects that TV ad spending will decline 2.9% this year to $70.3 billion, and that TV's share of total U.S. ad spending will drop below 30% for the first time since it became Madison Avenue's dominant medium.
"By 2022, it will drop below one-quarter of total US ad spending," the report adds.
A major factor influencing TV's declining share of ad spending is the corresponding erosion of TV households and time spent viewing the medium.
eMarketer projects the average time spent viewing TV will decline 3.0% this year to 3 hours and 40 minutes per U.S. viewer.
"All age groups are showing declines in time spent watching TV, but the largest drops are occurring among viewers ages 17 and younger," the eMarketer report notes.