• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, April 24, 2023

Considering a possible recessionary economy causing some hiccups, we figure all this won’t change the usual fuzziness of all the data to sift through. 

What about streaming? CTV?

Measurement, you say? Hold on a second. We have history to talk about.

Longtime upfront and marketplace media agency analyst Brian Wieser says there is a strong correlation between volume and pricing -- even amid the existing, and out-of-the-box, challenging market conditions.

Take the pandemic period, which occurred just before the start of the TV upfront marketplace in June-August 2020.

The upfront resulted in a 14% decline in volume with a 4% price increase. Yes, an increase!

Normally, he says, if there is no change in the volume of the upfront, you would see a roughly 7% increase in CPMs (cost-per-thousand viewers).

He explains that the average CPM price increase over the last 42 years has been a 9% pricing gain -- while volume rose, on a compound annual basis  of just under 5% per year.

Although there are strong differences -- especially in recent years, due to changes in methodology, with the people meter in the 1980s, and the change to commercial ratings guarantees (C3 and C7) in the late 2000s -- he says a number of things remain the same.

This includes "reach" by the major networks.

Although these numbers have eroded in recent years, these networks are still high on the list for marketers. This is because the largest networks, those broadcast-based channels, are still ahead of other TV-video alternatives.

So, we know about the big marketplace changes that have been giving media agency and advertising marketing executives major headaches -- including those significant and continued declines in pay TV, coupled with rising advertising-free subscription services.

But for the moment,  I would slip in this small but growing trend ---  that FAST channels, those streaming, free to consumers, ad-supported networks/platforms,  might be giving back to the health and consistency of the upfront marketplace.

Even with all of this, Wieser says, when it comes to the true -- and regular -- brand TV advertisers and their buying strategies:  “In aggregate, they mostly have not changed how they use TV ad inventory from year-to-year, and I don''t think there will be any changes in this upcoming season either.”

Okay then. No worries -- at least for this upfront market.

Severe marketplace tremors can be pushed to another year. You have history on your side.