• by Laurie Sullivan  @lauriesullivan, October 31, 2023

Generative artificial intelligence (GAI) will help Google sustain its dominance in search and as a “source of truth" -- despite giving up a small number of search engine results (SERPs) pages and queries to Microsoft Bing. This is among the predictions Forrester Research released Tuesday for advertising and media in 2023.

Some 73% of online adults said they would rely on Google to verify suspect responses from ChatGPT, according to Forrester. This credibility will enable Google to capitalize on its strengths as the crawler and repository of reliable information.

“CMOs will enter 2024 with optimism about media partners’ usual suspects — ready to build, test, and learn,” according to the report titled Predictions 2024: Media And Advertising.

Forrester analysts anticipate a year where advertisers invest in proven media partners, and in doing so, experiment within “safe” spaces, making media giants bigger. The report includes five media and advertising predictions for 2024.

As part of the growth, Google will commercialize what it calls the C4 (Colossal Clean Crawling Corpus) dataset to provide an off-domain search experience that can integrate with any connected device and monetize its search infrastructure, similar to the way Amazon monetizes its cloud infrastructure with Amazon Web Services (AWS).

The adoption of Google’s ad-free search subscription will widen its stance from the competition as the company prepares for a future of cross-functional SEO competencies and practicing holistic to search marketing, the report notes.

Media plans will change this year as Gen Z grows up. Favorites like gaming platforms, TikTok, and Instagram will force legacy media to move over as marketers realize they will gain more value chasing the next-generation consumer in these platforms.

Eighty-six percent of U.S. B2C marketing executives in Forrester’s Q2 2023 B2C Marketing CMO Pulse Survey said finding better ways to reach Gen Z and Millennials is a priority.

Media budgets will stabilize and marketers will begin to take more risks in 2024 -- but they will be calculated risks, according to the report.

Experiments with new capabilities within the “bounds of known and practical media channels” will appear more frequently in 2024 marketing plans.

Forrester’s July 2023 Artificial Intelligence Pulse Survey found that 37% of AI decision-makers say creating marketing content will be the most important use case for GAI in their organization during the next 12 months, but at least one brand will apologize after a Super Bowl stunt gone awry.

Forrester also predicts that with Microsoft’s $65 billion acquisition of Activision, advertisers are ready to take in-game advertising seriously.

Nearly half of online adults in the U.S., 42% in the UK, and 38% in France using smartphones say they regularly play games on their mobile device. Today, U.S. ad spending on video games totaled only one-sixth of what was spent on social media channels.

With consumer privacy changes on the way, Forrester analysts believe that will change. In-game media offers lower CPMs, addressable audiences, and brand safety built in.

Deepfake ads will accelerate election misinformation. “Every election cycle triggers poor-quality ads funded by dark money political organizations with a use-it-or-lose-it approach to balancing reach and brand safety,” Forrester Analysts wrote.

Despite Google's requirement that political advertisers disclose AI use in ads, image generation in software tools will advance deepfake advertising to a “crisis level” in 2024 until supply-side platforms (SSPs) and demand-side platforms (DSPs) agree to intervene, with help from the FTC.