• by Wayne Friedman , December 20, 2023

Widespread profitability of premium streaming business -- especially among legacy TV-based media owners -- is likely to occur sooner than expected, in the next year and half. according to Ampere Analysis.

“The shift to profitability has wide-ranging implications for content production and the wider entertainment landscape with a reversal of investor negativity likely to come sooner than previously predicted,” say the authors of the analysis.

All this will cement these companies' efforts to transition from linear TV distribution/transmission into full-time digital media businesses

Walt Disney, fronted by its Disney+ streaming service, is first to be projected to get to steady profitability as early as the first quarter 2014 -- which would be two months earlier than expected by the company’s own estimates. 

Warner Bros. Discovery -- which had seen some very short profitable periods, especially for its Max platform -- will see more consistent profits starting in the third quarter of next year.

NBCUniversal (Peacock) and Paramount Global (Paramount+) is projected to arrive at positive profitable results just about a year from now in the first quarter of 2025.

Four years from now, all major legacy owned streamers will have between $1 billion and $2 billion in positive cash flow -- earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). 

Disney -- with Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ in tow -- will amass $1.9 billion by 2028 annually, while Warner Bros Discovery will reach $1.7 billion for all its streaming efforts; Paramount $1.1 billion; and NBCU, $700 million.