NBA incumbent TV sports-rights holders Walt Disney and Warner
Bros. Discovery could take a hit to their combined $1.4 billion in annual NBA ad revenue if NBCUniversal gets a piece of the big sports TV programming package, according to John Hodulik, media analyst
of UBS.
Adding NBCUniversal into the current NBA live, linear TV networks lineup could mean a 15% to 20% reduction in total advertising dollars for Disney (ABC, ESPN) and Warner Bros. (TNT, TBS)
-- currently at $809 million and $588 million, respectively.
NBCU could get 30% to 40% of the advertising inventory, according to Hodulik's projections.
That would mean a decline for
Disney to $648 million and for Warner Bros. to $481 million.
NBCUniversal could see $519 million in annual NBA advertising dollars.
Looking at 18-49 viewers, UBS estimates that
currently Disney gets a $70 CPM (cost per thousand viewers), with Warner Bros. coming in at $65 CPM.
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Disney airs 96 hours of average TV commercial 18-49 NBA action, while Warner Bros. airs 75
hours.
This comes at a time when overall NBA rights fees could climb substantially -- to an estimated $2.6 billion on average per year for Disney (from $1.5 billion) and $2.5 billion for
Warner Bros. (from $1.2 billion).
If NBCU secures a deal, it is projected to also have a $2.5 billion-per-year average rights fee.
Amazon could also be a factor, and would impact
advertising for Disney and Warner Bros., as it is reportedly also close to securing a streaming package.
Hodulik says it would also result in some ad inventory carved out from the incumbent
deals.