Broadcast TV Networks' Reach For Viewers 18+ Now Under 50%: Analyst
- by Wayne Friedman , September 25, 2024
Key reach metrics for the largest broadcast networks are now well below 50%, says MoffettNathanson Research -- down from their levels of 70% to 75% ten years ago -- with cable TV networks now under 30%.
ABC, CBS, and NBC broadcast networks are estimated at a projected reach for persons 18 years and up of 46%, 41%, and 41% respectively, as of the second quarter of 2024, while Fox comes in at 34%.
In second-quarter 2014, these four networks registered 78%, 74%, 76%, and 70% for reach, respectively.
“Linear TV reach -- the very heart of the networks’ go-to-market advantage -- has fallen dramatically over this timeframe,” says MoffettNathanson Research.
The strongest-performing cable TV network is ESPN at 28% -- down from 44%.
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Some of the biggest cable TV entertainment-focused channels -- TNT, TBS, and USA Network and FX -- have witnessed sharper declines than sports-focused network ESPN: now at 27%, 22%, 17%, and 14% respectively. Ten years ago, TNT was at 54%, followed by TBS at 52%, USA at 46% and FX at 48%.
TV news networks such as CNN and Fox News Channel are at 13% reach -- down from 27% and 20%, respectively.
This comes in tandem with major TV viewing declines -- especially for non-sports, linear TV entertainment of those under 50 years of age.
Time viewed by viewers 18-49 has dropped 70% since 2015, with time viewed for persons ages 2-17 sinking 86%.
On the flip side, trends for viewers age 50 and up continue to be modest by comparison -- down 14%. Combining all persons two years and older shows a 45% decline in viewing over a nine-year period
Cord-cutting, coupled with a massive shift in viewing to streaming and digital platforms -- continues to eat into linear TV viewer consumption.
Wayne, Though you didn't explicitly state it, your headline suggests that broadcast TV networks as a group only reached half of all TV home adulrts per quarter this year when in reality the figures cited are for individual networks, not their combined reach.
Of course there have been significant losses in viewing frequency and reach---though less so in the latter case. However, if we cumed the stats for the four broadcast TV networks, their current collective reach is probably on the order of 75% or, perhaps a tad higher. A similar comparison for 2014 would probably have shown a 95% reach. So viewed with that perspective, the loss in reach---providing an advertiser spread out its buys across all of the networks---would not be as great as the average ratings imply.