• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, May 1, 2025

Early advertising estimates project that the linear TV upfront market -- broadcast and cable -- will see anywhere from a 4.5% to 10% revenue drop this time around for the 2025-2026 TV season.

A year ago, Media Dynamics estimated a decline in linear upfront advertising revenue of 4% -- vs. the previous TV season -- to $18.4 billion for the 2024-2025 season.

What about premium streaming/connected TV revenue? That was up 35% to $11.1 billion for platforms including Disney+, Max, Peacock, Paramount+ and AMC+ as well as services like Roku, Netflix, Apple TV+ and Amazon.

But we are in a different marketplace, with the augur of where and when tariffs and a probable recession will land.

Already the news is not good: The first quarter witnessed a slight 0.3% decline in the U.S. gross domestic product.

So what now? Who comes in and saves the day? Sports, to an extent.

Some analysts expect there will be a contraction in content occurring on linear TV, and that live sports (and other live programming) will look to fill more of the gap for TV networks.

Also, we can look to how much sports content will shift to premium streamers for the next TV season. Already there are sizable levels of streamers including Paramount+ and Peacock with the likes of the NFL.

Adding to this is the next-biggest sports TV property: The NBA. For the NBA starting in 2025-2026, under new 11-year contracts with TV networks, there will be seemingly more games for streamers.

NBCUniversal, for one, is a new partner. Its Peacock will stream two NBA games every Monday night and NBC will broadcast two games on Tuesdays. There will also be special games on NBC/Peacock: All-Star Game, Rising Stars Game, and All-Star Saturday night competitions.

In addition, Amazon Prime Video will have exclusive global coverage of 66 regular-season games -- doubleheaders on Thursday and Friday nights.

With a possible recession looming, TV networks -- linear and cable -- and their streaming platforms will look to expand their offering to brands, in packaged scripted entertainment/sports media deals, as well as offering brand-needed flexibility of those plans.

Even then, traditional TV and other legacy advertising also has history to contend with -- including the resilience of the competitive digital advertising market.

Bernstein Research notes: “Each recession is different, but digital advertising has historically been more defensive than overall ad spend, and DR [direct response] more defensive than brand [advertising].”

All that creates a cloudy outlook for the upfront market over the next couple of months.