• by Wayne Friedman , Yesterday

Amid current upfront TV and streaming advertising negotiations -- with more ad inventory availability on Prime Video -- one analyst estimates the streaming platform (and Freevee) will grow 30% this year to $1.8 billion.

“Amazon is starting to suck the oxygen from the room with the company’s encroachment in adjacent verticals wreaking havoc in the streaming ecosystem after flooding Prime Video ad inventory into the market with comparatively low CPMs,” says Michael Morton, media analyst of MoffettNathanson Research, in a note.

The industry estimates that for Prime Video, non-NFL programming continues to come in at around $20-$30 CPMs -- the cost per thousand viewers, according to analysts.

In the longer-term outlook, Prime Video/Freevee is projected to gain another 22% to $2.1 billion in 2026.

In addition to steady gains from the NFL's "Thursday Night Football," Morton expects rising business from a new NBA contract starting up in the fall of 2025.

Looking just at “Thursday Night Football” itself, there is a projected 16% increase in advertising revenue to $728 million this year -- after a 28% year-over-year gain in 2024. The price per 30-second advertising message grew 28% to $563,000 in 2024.

This comes as Amazon has gradually increased inventory to 4-6 minutes of advertising per hour on Prime Video -- up from 3.5 minutes, according to media executives.

Amazon Freevee itself, its FAST (free advertising-supported streaming television) platform, was estimated to have pulled in $495 million in 2024.

Morton sees overall digital video/audio advertising growth -- including Twitch, Amazon Fire TV, PrimeVideo/Freevee and Amazon Audio -- climbing 17% to $4.3 billion in 2025.