• by Wayne Friedman , Yesterday

With more sports moving to streaming from national linear TV, third-quarter 2025 comparisons continue to show spikes in premium streaming ad revenue, with connected TV platforms edging close to total dollar parity with linear TV,  according to estimates from MoffettNathanson Research.

In total, major U.S. streaming platforms will see a nearly 18% increase in ad revenue to $3.8 billion, while national linear TV will drop 10% to $4.65 billion. This excludes Olympic advertising of a year ago. 

National TV will be down 26% (and streaming up 8%) when including Olympic revenue of a year ago.

Netflix will continue to see very strong results -- improving its advertising take by double (up 108%) versus a year ago to $537 million.

Disney+ will be the next highest in improvement -- up 32% to $186 million (although that is less than half of Netflix’s quarterly take). Pure-play streaming platforms Roku and Tubi will grow 26% (to $373 million) and 20% ($306 million) respectively.

Peacock will grow 14% to $527 million -- when taking out last year’s July/August Paris Olympics ad-revenue results.

In terms of linear TV advertising revenue, Walt Disney is the only media company estimated to see slight year-over-year ad revenue gains for all its cable TV networks, up 4.4% to $705 million (largely driven by ESPN).

For its broadcast business, Disney’s ABC Television Network will sink 12% to $367 million.

Looking at linear TV advertising trends overall, Fox Corp. will see minimal declines. Due to its continued strength with Fox News Channel, the company’s cable TV network group will slip just 3% in the period to $311 million. Similar broadcasting trends are expected for Fox Television Network -- down just 2.9% to $391 million.

Linear TV business cable networks will see major losses, with Warner Bros. Discovery down 19% ($818 million), NBCUniversal falling 33% ($509 million) and Paramount down 20% to $263 million.