Consumers spent $187.3 billion so far
this holiday season between November 1 and December 12, which represents 6.1% growth year-over-year (YoY), according to Adobe Analytics data.
Online spending is
set to reach $253.4 billion, up 5.3% YoY.
The data provides a view into U.S. ecommerce by analyzing direct commerce transactions online of more than 1 trillion visits to U.S.
retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.
Digital advertising in the U.S. is projected to surpass $40 billion in Q4 2025 -- up 13% year-over-year, according
to Sensor Tower data released in September, as brands reshape their strategies around AI and retail media.
This begs the question of whether AI recommendations for gift buying contributed to
the performance of ads.
"There are likely multiple drivers at play on returns being lower this holiday season, including that consumers are being very strategic, considered and
conscientious about what they buy within the broader macroeconomic environment," Vivek Pandya, director of Adobe Digital Insights, told MediaPost. "Some are using AI tools to determine
the best items to select for their holiday shopping and given this elevated level of consideration, we're seeing incrementally lower rates of return than observed in previous years.”
Shoppers are returning less products this year. For the holiday shopping period stated above by Adobe, returns were down 2.5% versus the comparable period last year. In the seven days
following Cyber Week, returns were down 0.1%.
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While smaller screens have become the preference to transact ecommerce purchases this season, consumers are relying
on desktop devices to make returns.
So far this season, 39.1% of returns happened on a mobile device vs. desktop, while 52.4% of overall online spend was driven by
mobile.
Returns may have hit a low so far this holiday season, but Adobe predicts they will pick up following Christmas Day. During the days following Christmas Day
through December 31, returns are expected to rise by 25% to 35% compared with levels in the season-to-date.
Returns are also set to remain rising
through the first two weeks of January, up 8% to 15%.
Typically, the last week of December sees the greatest number of returns. In 2024, one in
every eight returns during the holiday season occurred between December 16 and December 31.
FedEx in November released its 2025 Holiday Season E-Commerce Trends report in collaboration
with C Space, revealing that 97% of large U.S. retailers surveyed planned on using AI to enhance consumer shopping experiences this holiday season.
Retailers said they would incorporate AI
tools like chatbots to improve customer service, audience targeting, inventory management, and pricing optimization.
Four in 10 consumers planned to use AI primarily to find the best deals and
to get gift ideas, compare product features and research brands. The gift ideas part of this caught my attention.
When a consumer enters a description of consumer behavior into a chatbot such
as likes and dislikes, age, and other characteristics, the chatbot should have the ability to return recommendations. If the chatbot provides a recommendation based on specific attributes of the
consumer, there should not be a need for a return.
C Space conducted two surveys for FedEx, one among consumers and one among ecommerce merchants.
The consumer survey was conducted
between August 13 and August 26, 2025, among a sample of 180 U.S. consumers.
The merchant survey was conducted between August 13 and August 27, 2025, among a sample of 307 U.S. ecommerce
merchants.