• by Sarah Mahoney , Staff Writer, Yesterday

For the first time in its nine-year history, Dunnhumby’s Retailer Preference Index puts three regional chains — H-E-B, Market Basket, and Woodman’s — at the top of its U.S. grocery rankings, a shift that says little about geography and plenty about economic reality.

As financial pressure intensifies for American households, Dunnhumby’s research find that 56% of U.S. consumers would struggle to cover a $400 emergency expense, while 58 million — more than the entire population of Canada — say they experience food insecurity and occasionally skip meals as a result. Against that backdrop, the firm’s latest rankings point to a stark conclusion: Grocery loyalty is increasingly shaped by how well retailers help shoppers save money without sacrificing quality.

In 2025, savings-related factors accounted for 41% of long-term retailer success, a record high for the study and a signal that value pressure is no longer cyclical. It is structural. Retailers that excel at pricing, promotions, and rewards, while maintaining strong quality perceptions, are outperforming competitors that still attempt to balance all performance pillars equally.

Last year “threw a lot of curveballs at the U.S. consumer,” says Matt O’Grady, president of the Americas for Dunnhumby, in the report. It cites rising prices, wage stagnation and job insecurity as forces eroding purchasing power at all income levels. In that environment, he said, trust, which builds through consistent savings,  has become critical.

The RPI, which combines financial performance with customer-perception data from more than 11,000 grocery shoppers, shows that digital experience continues to matter less than it did just a few years ago. As online shopping tools and apps become table stakes, the competitive advantage has shifted back toward grocery fundamentals: price credibility, promotional clarity and solid store experiences.

That shift helps explain why midmarket conventional grocers remain vulnerable. The study finds growth increasingly pooling at the extremes of the value spectrum,  among savings-first retailers on one end and quality-first specialists on the other. That’s leaving brands that “lean” in both directions struggling to stand out.

Woodman’s debut in the top three underscores that dynamic. The Wisconsin-based retailer leapfrogged national competitors by delivering strong results in the two most influential pillars — savings and quality — while also ranking near the top in operational consistency. Meanwhile, Amazon and Sam’s Club both fell in the rankings, in part because digital advantages now carry less weight than clear leadership in the value core.

That same value polarization has also benefited Walmart, the nation’s largest grocer, which continues to gain share by reinforcing its savings-first positioning. Dunnhumby’s analysis shows that price-led retailers like Walmart and Aldi are narrowing quality perception gaps with traditional competitors while extending their advantage on affordability — a combination that resonates as shoppers become more deliberate about where they spend each grocery dollar.

By contrast, midmarket conventional grocers — including Kroger, Albertsons, and Sam’s Club — face growing pressure as shoppers trade up or down the value spectrum, leaving “leaning” strategies harder to sustain.

Taken together, the findings suggest grocery wars are entering a more competitive phase. As household budgets tighten, shoppers are becoming more deliberate and less forgiving, rewarding retailers that make savings tangible and punishing those that rely on breadth, technology or brand reputation alone.