• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, 5 hours ago

Complicating marketplace factors for the rest of this year show that TV and streaming companies are looking to tackle some key moments.

Let’s look at who wants to control the ball in an attempt to get to the end zone.

While there is a strong, natural focus on streaming and Paramount's and Netflix's efforts to pursue a merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, UBS reminds us there are some core issues with the NFL rights as well as other sports-related factors at work.

“We believe an early NFL renewal could be an overhang in 2026,” writes John Hodulik, media analyst at UBS.

In its current TV/streaming 11-year long contracts signed in 2021, the NFL put in an option allowing it to bump up rights fees due to changing marketplace conditions.

“The NFL could renegotiate its media deals this year ahead of the contractual opt out in 2029.”

Those marketplace conditions include what other major sports leagues may secure in TV-streaming rights fees, he says -- especially Major League Baseball and NHL deal-making to begin in 2028.

Fox Corp. and Paramount Skydance would have the highest cost "exposure," he says, while Walt Disney and Comcast Corp. would be lower because of their broader mix of other media businesses contributing to their overall financial results.

But not all the attention will be focused on the NFL in terms of sports content this year.

The Milan Cortina Winter Olympics starts up next month, and the FIFA World Cup later in the summer will be poised to contribute in a big way when it comes to  advertising revenue.

While these sports are regular events that cycle back every other year (as well as the U.S. midterm and Presidential elections), Hodulik believes this year will deepen the dynamic of the "haves" and "have nots."

“Cyclical events (Olympics, U.S. World Cup, elections) will provide a boost to reported results but also have the effect of crowding out demand for other networks.”

He adds: “We expect the gap in ad spend (and viewership) between networks with high sports/news vs. greater entertainment exposure to widen.”

In other words, more media disruption on the small and mid-sized legacy TV/streaming and movie TV content-producing players.

With the streaming marketplace hitting higher maturity levels, now you know why the likes of Netflix and Paramount are pursuing Warner Bros. Discovery so aggressively.

They want to be one of those bigger "haves" companies.