• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, 5 hours ago

For example, E.W. Scripps recently reported that political advertising in the first quarter of this year was $9 million -- up from $3.3 million a year ago (and 50% higher compared to the first quarter of 2022, the previous midterm election season.)

Likewise, Nexstar Media Group -- the largest TV station company in the U.S. -- posted $41 million in political ad revenue, up $6M from a year ago. Sinclair -- the next-biggest station group -- topped $18 million, also compared to $6 million a year ago.

Both have a huge number of stations in competitive or swing states -- 23 for Nexstar and 26 for Sinclair -- which potentially will drive up political messaging.

But core local, non-political advertising still has an uncertain outlook.

Local broadcasters say the marketplace is still “choppy.” Scripps, for one, talked about weakness in the direct-response performance brands, saying that “inflationary pressure and higher fuel costs have created some hesitation in the marketplace.”

Scripps has done well compared to its competitors, with core, local non-political advertising growing 6% to $140 million in the first quarter -- mostly attributable to local TV sports programming agreements with four NHL teams, as well as the Winter Olympics and Super Bowl.

Nexstar Media Group only grew 1.2% in core advertising in the period (to $507 million) which includes its acquisition of mid-sized station group Tegna. Much of this was due to amped-up sports programming on Tegna NBC’s affiliates with the Super Bowl and the Winter Olympics in February and March.

Sinclair Inc. (which is still looking to acquire E.W. Scripps) was up 4% to $261 million in the period -- mostly driven by digital platform strength.

But there is more concern coming, especially with regard to new Nielsen Big Data+Panel measurement.

One recent audit from the Media Rating Council showed a 10% decline in the key adult 25-54 demographic, which could have a major effect on local TV station advertising revenue.

The positive is that Nielsen’s new measure fills the smaller market programs with viewing data, which were previously too small to capture viewing, resulting in "zero’ ratings." There is also more granular detail for stations coming offering advanced TV audience data.

At the same time, there is much volatile and “undercounting” of specific audience groups, according to executives. More adjustments are coming from Nielsen, however.

The prospect is to look forward to the next first-quarter period, where a bigger spotlight will be core advertising (without spikes in political advertising).

A mixed view will then offer a clearer -- if not more honest -- vision of performance, perhaps some good and some bad.