• by Mitch Oscar , Op-Ed Contributor, July 17, 2007

For a couple of days last week, I was sequestered with some media brethren (compadres) at a client-sponsored offsite. On the first day of the media mind meld we were asked by our host to address the following question: "How do the different platforms stack up against each other -- and what could change in the next three to five years?"

I wasn't quite sure how to interpret this question. If stacking means advertisers' attitudes toward traditional television vs. broadband and wireless video, then I would have to say business as usual: slow growth for traditional media while maintaining its dominant share; and explosive percentage growth for broadband and wireless, which will continue to lag far, far behind traditional in terms of real dollars. The new media as well as the new, new media will continue to garner headlines and the press will continue to devote much of its content to the "traditional sky is falling" headers -- but in reality, all will continue at its present pace of growth and lack thereof.

One could argue that the online sector's explosive growth of $3 billion a year is certainly considerable -- which it is -- however, a fair proportion of the dollars are being generated from marketers who couldn't afford to advertise beyond their local Pennysaver. Google and other search engines have enabled them to extend their reach at a reasonable cost-to-result ratio -- so we understand. It has been search that has helped the online sector garner its $16+ billion, of which 40+% is devoted to search applications.

Although there is a lot of talk about rich media online, particularly broadband video, we are not sure at this juncture how meaningfully advertising opportunities will translate into revenue generation. In 2006 three-quarter of a billion dollars was generated from rich media advertising. The belief that user-generated content will divert traffic from traditional TV viewing to the web has mitigated. The video destination sites, such as AOL, Yahoo, MSN, Joost, Veoh, and Revver -- to name the majors -- are looking for professionally produced content, and advertisers have expressed publicly their concern about the association with content that is not screened and produced by amateurs. Also, although many companies are offering devices that bridge broadband and the TV set -- such as AppleTV, Amazon, DivX -- there seems, at present, very little motivation (programming and expense) for consumers to engage.

In terms of what could change in the next three to five years, our host reminded us that we should limit our prognostications to five or under so that we could move on with the agenda in a timely manner. So here are mine:

1) Technology develops that enables traditional TV and broadband to enter into the home through the same pipe, such as IPTV or something else brilliantly devised that is not dependent on a Microsoft invention. When this happens, the bundling of traditional TV and media rich broadband will be easier to digest for ad agencies and advertisers to appreciate their synergy.

2) The telecos (Verizon and AT&T) will become tired of waiting for their deployment of IPTV to gain a critical advertising mass -- a mythological scale not articulated by the ad community other than it will know when it is achieved -- and swallow up a cable operator, satellite company or broadcaster or two so they can generate requisite coverage, and with it, meaningful ad revenue.

3) Ad agencies will be closer to figuring out how to merge their different media silos so they can truly offer an advertiser 360 marketing campaigns that are consumer-centric and not based upon their archaic system of handling media. The ad agencies will also break down the inequity of the current compensation structure in which online service garners two to three times the commission percentage of traditional media.

4) Given the $10.5 billion spent in acquisitions in the last few weeks by Google, Microsoft, Yahoo and WPP, the ad and media community should see the Federal Communications Commission easing up its restrictive guidelines for the traditional TV sector (cable, satellite, telecos and digital terrestrial) to mine their subscriber behavior and match it with datamining companies, such as Acxiom and Experian. When this transition takes place it will have a significant impact on answering the always haunting ROI and engagement questions that nag the traditionalists but always seem addressed by the onliners.

5) The ad and media community will reconfigure the siloed media landscape -- i.e., TV, print, radio, online, and out of home -- and morph it into video, audio and data groupings. Once this happens, the ad community will have an easier time evolving marketing models for the future that are dependent on the consumer's choice of receptivity rather than dictated by dominant purveyors of media content and their distribution platforms and windows.