Global TV Ad Growth Forecast At 3% In 2013, 6% Next Year

The global advertising market will continue to grow modestly at low single-digit increases through the end of the year --  but will spike up to a 6% growth rate next year.

Magna Global’s latest advertising forecast will get to $486 billion with 3% growth for 2013 -- a slowdown from the 3.9% growth of a year ago. Still, the media agency group unit says the market will show double the growth levels next year -- 6.1%, to reach $515 billion.

Magna says its latest estimate of a 3% growth rate for this year is down from a 3.1% earlier projection. Its new 2014 estimate of 3.9% is up from an earlier 3.8% number.

Key growth regions will include Latin America -- up 12.5% for 2013, and for Asia-Pacific countries (APAC), 5.9% higher -- growing to 12.9% for Latin America and 7.4% for APAC regions next year.



The biggest market -- the U.S. -- will only inch up 0.7% in 2013 to hit $155 billion, but will grow 5.9% next year to reach $164 billion. (Magna had previously forecast a 5.4% hike for 2014).

U.S. television advertising will sink 2.8% in 2013 -- with broadcast TV 6.8% lower. Cable TV will gain 2.4%. Magna says digital media will be the only media category to show significant growth in 2013 -- 11.5%. U.S. mobile advertising will continue to see major growth -- 61.7% to $5.4 billion. U.S. print advertising revenues will see a 6.7% drop for magazines and a 6.8% decline for newspapers. Radio will see flat revenues, with out-of-home advertising up 3.5%.

Western European markets will see advertising revenues decline by 1.6% in 2013, with Central and Eastern Europe growing by an average 7.6%. Magna says Western Europe -- plagued by economic difficulties -- will stabilize in 2014.

Overall ad revenue from Europe, Middle East, and Africa countries (EMEA) will rise 3.3% in 2014.

The second-biggest country -- Japan -- will get to $51.7 billion in 2013 and $53.2 billion in 2014. China, in third place, will total $42.8 billion this year and $48.0 billion next year.

Worldwide digital media will continue to be a major part of overall advertising growth -- up 13.4% to $113.6 billion in 2013. Also for this year, digital search will climb 14.6% to $52 billion; digital video will rise 21% to $6.6 billion; mobile advertising will be 54% higher to $12 billion; and social media will rocket up 39.6% to reach $8.2 billion.

Due to the absence of big TV events, global television advertising growth will slow down this year -- up just 2% to $196.5 billion. TV still holds a leading 40% market share of all media advertising dollars. Print advertising will drop in revenues this year -- newspapers will be 3.3% lower and magazines will have a 5.1% decline to a collective $110 billion. Radio advertising will inch up 1.1% to $32.5 billion and out-of-home media will add 2.9% to reach $32.6 billion.

Magna says automated “programmatic” buying -- which already represents 17% of online display transactions in the U.S. --  now at $2.4 billion -- expects the business to increase to 48% of online revenues by 2017. Other markets show programmatic buying having a 30% share of all online display business.

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