• by Cory Treffiletti , Featured Contributor, October 26, 2005

I love when I read the posts on the Spin Boards and get feedback proclaiming things like "You missed the boat!" These are the kinds of posts that make me reexamine the articles I write and consider if I did miss the point, or if I glossed over something of value, and last week I think I did.

Last week I stated the power of the impact of the video iPod announcement was on the delivery of content to computers and the ways that consumers will become more used to acquiring mainstream content. After reviewing this idea, I realized I glossed over one key point. The impact of the video iPod is much larger and focuses on the impact of the entire content-on-demand movement within consumer culture.

If you think about it, consumer culture has been steadily shifting towards an on-demand world for the last thirty years. The VCR, which launched some 25 years ago, was the first step in on-demand content delivery. The Web was the first digital step in delivering content to consumers when they wanted it, and was followed by TiVo and the advent of the personal video recorder. Now, with the development of a portable digital storage device that is highly popular and linked to numerous methods of playback, on-demand content is about to take another dramatic step forward. It is the opportunity for on-demand content to become mobile and flexible--adjectives that generally weren't used to describe the VCR.

Being able to download content from the Web is a big deal, and the interface for general consumer acceptance of this model is very big, but making that content portable and removing it from the confines of the computer is the true strength of the strategy. These devices are all equipped for playback on other output devices. There are simple adapters you can buy that allow you to play the video on your iPod over a TV. In fact, computer screens are getting larger and higher in quality, making your TV almost obsolete in the first place.

Yes, there are other companies that have developed stronger tools for playback or delivery, and other companies that have developed similar business models, which opens the door for competition in the coming months (yeah, capitalism!). For example, the Napster model of limitless access to music could be easily applied to digital video as well, opening up a new wealth of possibilities. The recently announced partnership between Real and Microsoft creates a unique competitor to Apple--and one rarely bets against Bill Gates. The Archos line of products may have stronger playback screens and might have larger storage capacity, but they have been unable to get a strong foothold in the market. All of these represent selection and an opportunity for other companies to take a shot at market share, which is always a good thing. What Apple is doing is setting a precedent in a marketplace with a product that is culturally accepted, and using this as an opportunity to radically shift the behavior of the consumer towards the on-demand model. The question is, how will the competition respond and take advantage of this shift?

The next three to four months are critical. The reason I got so excited about the impact of the video iPod a week ago, and the reason I'm still talking about it now, is this is the fruition of so much of what we've been talking about for the last 12 years. All that time we've been predicting what might happen--and these recent developments are examples of the shift actually starting to occur. Whether Apple, Microsoft, Napster, Archos, Real, Sony, Time Warner, Yahoo, Google or any other company emerges as the clear-cut winner is up for grabs, but the fact that the shift is finally starting to happen is exciting.

The focus of the opportunity is on the consumer, finally. Consumers will be responsible for the success or the failure of these efforts because they will dictate what they want and how they want it. The strongest performers during this period will be those who are set up to listen and actually hear what the consumer has to say. Much as the Spin Board provides me with an opportunity to think if I'm missing the point, other media will provide these companies with the opportunity to listen and react.

It's gonna be an exciting couple of months, that's for sure.